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China’s economic collapse no longer seems imminent


China's has the second largest economy in the world and represents around 12 per cent of global GDP and 18 per cent of global manufacturing exports.
In fact, collapse was never in the cards. Over the short term, as Beijing has demonstrated, it has enough financial firepower left to fight off threats to stability and prevent the economy from stalling.

The panic was triggered by an 11 percent plunge on the Shanghai stock exchange and by a small devaluation in the renminbi. Global investors—already skittish following the collapse of a Chinese equity-market bubble and a surprise currency devaluation last summer—took these latest moves as confirmation that the world’s second-biggest economy was far weaker than its relatively rosy headline growth numbers suggested.

As an initial matter, China’s current situation is far worse than the official National Bureau of Statistics reports. The NBS maintains that the country’s gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent during the third calendar quarter of this year after increases of 7.0 percent during each of the first two quarters.


What will happen if China's economy collapses?
The world will collapse too.

1) The grocery shortage
This applies to the situation when Chinese manufacture companies find they are no longer profitable and they want to shutdown their plants. As we all know the marginal cost get lower when production scales to be very large, and China is at the peak at scale, and at the moment there's no other country has a manufacturing industry developed to such a level.

Some may complain that 'Made in China' is flooding the global market, but if these country is going to manufacture products in their own factory, the price will at least double - if not triple, and working class in United States will not able able to afford to buy stuff in local grocery. China never forbidden another country from making their own products. It's a fair international market. And China is the strongest.

2) The 3rd world countries will loose their last chance to industrialize.
50% of world population is in poverty, and China has been the only country tries to help as a government. I know in United States there are lots people trying to help to, however it's usually young students with no real power and no responsibility of their own, when these kids grow up they know they must work for companies that pays them the most. China is the only country to invest heavily to these country just in the hope that these country can have a strong economy eventually and the world countries can speak at equal position.

If China's economy collapse, all these countries will loose their last (and the strongest) source of support.

3) The labor flood.
Today, China has the largest educated professional group. If China's internal economy collapse, these people will look solely at serving the oversea market. This will cause 80% of United States' white collar to loose their jobs (software engineers, accountants, finance managers, visual designers, ...). The offices that's moved out of China because of increasing cost will be moved back because cost is lower again and China is the only country with lots of labor already experienced.(Credit Liu Wei)

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